3 Min. Market Summary
05/01/2026

Rates were volatile again this week, driven by headlines out of the Middle East. Rates improved early in the week as markets grew more optimistic that the US and Iran were getting closer to a peace deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring oil prices lower. But after tensions flared again and both sides exchanged attacks, the market gave back much of those gains and rates moved higher again.

Economic data painted a mixed picture, with stronger headline job growth but weaker details underneath, including softer wage growth, fewer full-time jobs, and more people leaving the workforce.

Overall, I would say this week was more of the same with both headline risks and the data we’ve seen coming out.

For now, markets are still focused more on oil prices, inflation pressure, and geopolitical risk than any one economic report.

Keep reading for a full breakdown of this week’s market-moving news:

Labor Market (Jobs)

• Bureau of Labor Statistics Jobs Report
  • April payrolls showed 115,000 jobs added versus expectations near 60,000.
  • Unemployment held at 4.3%.
  • February payrolls were revised sharply lower from -92,000 to -156,000.
  • March payrolls were revised slightly higher.
  • Household Survey showed 226,000 job losses.
  • Labor force participation declined as 92,000 people left the workforce.
  • Full-time jobs fell by 424,000 while part-time jobs increased by 123,000.
  • Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.2% monthly and 3.6% year over year, softer than expected.
  • U-6 unemployment increased from 8.0% to 8.2%.
  • Health Care and Social Assistance continued driving most job growth.
• ADP Employment Report
  • ADP reported 109,000 jobs added in April.
  • Most gains came from lower paying and part-time positions.
  • Education and Health Services accounted for more than half of job creation.
  • Wage growth for workers staying in their jobs slowed slightly to 4.4%.
• Revelio Labs
  • Reported 66,000 jobs created in April.
  • Highest reading since last summer but still relatively soft overall.
• Challenger Job Cuts
  • Job cuts rose 38% month over month to 83,000.
  • AI-related restructuring remained a major driver of layoffs.
  • Hiring plans continued trending lower.
• JOLTS Report
  • Job openings came in at 6.87 million, slightly below the prior month.
  • Hiring rate improved modestly from 3.1% to 3.5%.
  • Quits rate rose slightly to 2.0% but remained historically weak.
• Jobless Claims
  • Initial claims rose to 200,000.
  • Continuing claims remained stable around 1.77 million.

Inflation

• Oil prices remained the biggest inflation story this week.
  • Crude moved sharply lower as markets grew more optimistic about a possible peace deal with Iran.
  • Earlier fears around the Strait of Hormuz and supply disruptions had pushed oil above $100 per barrel.
  • Markets reacted positively whenever headlines suggested negotiations were improving.
• Institute for Supply Management Services Index
  • Prices Paid component remained elevated at 71.
  • Inflation pressures tied to energy costs continued showing up in services data.
• Housing and Rent Trends
  • Camden Properties said rent growth remained modest with new renters spending about 19% of income on rent.
  • New apartment supply has dropped sharply from peak levels.
  • Analysts still expect rent inflation to remain subdued near term due to lag effects.

Economic Reports and Forecasts

• New Home Sales
  • February and March sales both beat expectations.
  • Combined sales jumped 17% from January levels.
  • Lower median prices reflected a shift toward smaller and lower priced homes rather than widespread price cuts.
• Cotality Home Price Insights
  • Home prices rose 0.4% year over year in March.
  • Forecast for home appreciation over the next year increased to 5.1%.
  • Housing demand continued showing resilience despite elevated rates.
• com Listings Data
  • Active listings rose 4.5% year over year.
  • Days on market improved from 57 to 52.
  • Inventory recovery continued but at a slower pace, which is normal this time of year

Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy

• Markets continued debating whether weaker labor conditions would eventually push the Federal Reserve toward rate cuts later this year.
• Softer wage growth and labor force weakness supported the case for eventual easing.
• Stronger headline payroll numbers temporarily reduced immediate rate cut expectations, but markets largely dismissed the report due to ongoing revisions and credibility concerns with the data.
• Bond markets (and rates) remained highly reactive to oil prices and geopolitical developments because of their inflation implications.

Other

• Iran and Middle East Developments
  • Markets rallied several times this week on news that the US and Iran were getting close to a peace deal, but gave back those gains after both sides exchanged missiles and tensions picked back up.
  • Proposed negotiations included reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing sanctions, and limiting Iran’s nuclear program.
  • Temporary flare-ups and ceasefire violations caused sharp swings in mortgage bonds and rate pricing throughout the week.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced “Economic Fury” measures aimed at increasing financial pressure on Iran.
  • Markets increasingly viewed oil prices and geopolitical stability as the main short-term driver for mortgage rates.